贵阳市气温和降雨对心脑血管疾病发病的影响

Effects of temperature and rainfall on the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Guiyang

摘要:

目的 探讨贵阳市气温和降雨对心脑血管疾病（CVD）发病的影响。方法 利用2021年9月至2022年8月贵阳市逐日 CVD发病数据和同期气温和降雨资料，采用分布滞后非线性模型分析气象环境因素与 CVD发病的非线性关系。结果 CVD在冷（平均、最低、最高气温分别<2.1 ℃、1.6 ℃、4.2 ℃时）效应和热效应（最高气温>32.5 ℃）时发病风险较高，累积滞后效应在10 d、17 d达最高。昼夜温差小（<6.9 ℃）、出现明显降温（24h降温超6.1℃）和升温（24h升温超2.4℃）情况下发病风险陡增。日雨量大于21.5mm时和连续雨日大于5.7d后CVD发病风险高，暴雨时 CVD发病风险较大雨时高0.8；连续无雨则有助于 CVD患者不发病。结论 高温、低温、气温起伏大、降雨量大小和连续降雨等气象环境对 CVD发病有影响，加强CVD防控有必要充分考虑气象环境变化。

关键词:心脑血管疾病;气温;降雨;分布滞后非线性模型

Abstract:

Objective To assess the effects of temperature and rainfall on the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) in Guiyang. Methods Using daily CVD incidence data and temperature and rainfall data in Guiyang City from September 2021 to August 2022, a distributed lag non-linear model was used to explore the nonlinear relationship between meteorological and environmental factors and CVD incidence. Results The risk of CVD was higher under cold (average, minimum, and maximum temperatures <2.1 ℃, 1.6 ℃, and 4.2 ℃, respectively) and hot (maximum temperature>32.5 ℃) effects, and the cumulative lag effect reached its maximum at 10 and 17 days, respectively. The risk of CVD increased sharply when there was a small diurnal temperature (<6.9 ℃), sudden drop in temperature (over 6.1 ℃), and heating (over 2.4 ℃ in 24 hours). The incidence risk of CVD was high when the daily rainfall exceeded 21.5 mm and the continuous rainy days exceed 5.7 days. The risk in rainstorm was 0.81 higher than that in heavy rain. Continuous absence of rain helped to prevent CVD patients from developing symptoms. Conclusion Meteorological environments such as hot and cold weather, dramatic change in temperature, significant rainfall and continuous rainfall have an impact on the incidence of CVD. It is necessary to consider the changes of the meteorological environment during the prevention and control of CVD.

Key words:Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases ; Temperature ; Rainfall ; Distributed lag non-linear models