1992—2021年中国归因于高体质量指数的慢性肾病疾病负担分析及趋势预测
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

刘宏,研究生在读,流行病与卫生统计学专业

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

R181

基金项目:


Disease burden of chronic kidney disease attributable to high BMI in China and trend prediction in 1992 - 2021
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    目的 分析中国归因于高体质量指数(body mass index, BMI)的慢性肾病(chronic kidney diseases, CKD)的疾病负担,并对其发展趋势进行预测,为CKD的防治提供依据。方法 利用全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库,采用Joinpoint模型从死亡率、DALY率对1992-2021年中国归因于高BMI的CKD疾病负担进行描述分析,采用ARIMA模型对其发展趋势进行预测分析。结果 1992-2021年归因于高BMI的CKD的死亡率、DALY率呈上升趋势。与1992年相比归因死亡人数增加了324.38%,DALY增加了268.56%;死亡率增加了64.00%;DALY率增长了51.62%。1992-2021年男性的死亡率、DALY率总体上高于女性,但男性增长速度大于女性。1992-2021中国归因于高BMI的CKD疾病负担随年龄增长呈上升趋势。1992-2021年中国归因于高BMI的CKD的年均变化率(死亡率为1.40/10万(95%CI: 1.04~1.76),DALY率为1.43/10万(95%CI: 1.17~1.70))低于全球和部分SDI地区。ARIMA模型预测结果显示,年龄标化死亡率从2022年的2.91/10万增加到2026年的3.05/10万:年龄标化DALY率从2022年的69.65/10万增加到2026年的73.58/10万。结论 我国归因于高BMI的CKD呈增长趋势,未来CKD将持续增长,应重点关注男性和老年人群,积极采取措施,减少CKD的发生和进展。

    Abstract:

    Objective To analyze the disease burden of chronic kidney diseases (CKD) attributed to high body mass index (BMI) in China from 1992 to 2021 and predict the disease burden for the next decade, and to provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of CKD. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and the Joinpoint model, the average annual percentage rate change (AAPC) of the mortality rate and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate was calculated to describe and analyze the CKD disease burden attributed to high BMI in China from 1992 to 2021. The ARIMA model was employed to predict and analyze the change trend of the CKD disease burden. Results From 1992 to 2021, the mortality rate and DALY rate attributed to high BMI-induced chronic kidney disease showed an upward trend. Compared to 1992, the attributed number of deaths increased by 324.38%, and DALYs increased by 268.56%; the mortality rate increased by 64.00%, and the DALY rate grew by 51.62%. From 1992 to 2021, the mortality rate and DALY rate for males were lower than those for females, but the growth rate for males exceeded that of females. From 1992 to 2021, the mortality rate and DALY rate of chronic kidney disease attributed to high BMI in China increased with age. The average annual change rate of chronic kidney disease attributed to high BMI in China from 1992 to 2021 (mortality rate: 1.40 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.04–1.76), DALY rate: 1.43 per 100 000 (95% CI: 1.17–1.70)) was higher than thHuaiyin Normal University, Huai’anher social demographic index (SDI) regions. The ARIMA model predicted that the age-standardized mortality rate increased from 2.91 per 100 000 in 2022 to 3.05 per 100 000 in 2026, and the age-standardized DALY rate increased from 69.65 per 100 000 in 2022 to 73.58 per 100 000 in 2026. Conclusion Chronic kidney disease attributed to high BMI in China is on the rise, and it will continue to grow in the future. The focus of CKD prevention and control should be on males and the elderly, while active measures should be taken to reduce the occurrence and progression of chronic kidney disease.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-12-03
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-03
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-15
  • 出版日期:
文章二维码