2010—2021年湖北省淋病流行特征分析及发病趋势预测
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张鹏,主管医师,研究方向为传染病监测和数据挖掘

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R181

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Epidemiological characteristics analysis and incidence trend prediction of gonorrhea in Hubei Province in 2010-2021
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    摘要:

    目的 分析湖北省淋病流行病学特征及发病趋势,为科学制定防控措施提供参考依据。方法 基于2010-2021年淋病监测数据,采用三间分布和ARIMA模型进行分析和预测。结果 2010-2021年报告发病率在3.01/10万-7.07/10万之间波动,年均报告发病率为4.62/10万,报告发病率呈现“先降后升,再降又升”的特点,6-12月份为发病高峰期;报告病例数男女性别比为5.78:1,20-39岁年龄段报告病例数占总病例数的62.43%,报告病例主要为家务及待业、农民、不详;Q型聚类将地区发病严重程度分为5类,最严重的一类包括神农架林区、黄石市、武汉市;ARIMA模型预测发病率与实际发病率较吻合,预测2022年病例数为3 343例。结论 当前我省淋病仍处于较高的流行水平;呈现明显的性别、年龄、职业、地区分布差异;ARIMA模型适用于淋病发病趋势的预测,预测2022年报告会小幅上升。

    Abstract:

    Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend of gonorrhea in Hubei Province, and to provide reference for scientific formulation of prevention and control measures. Methods Based on the surveillance data of gonorrhea from 2010 to 2021, three-way distribution and ARIMA model were used for data analysis and incidence prediction. Results From 2010 to 2021, the reported incidence rate fluctuated between 3.01/100 000-7.07/100 000, and the average annual reported incidence rate was 4.62/100 000. The reported incidence rate showed the characteristics of "first fall and then rise, and then fall and rise again", and the peak incidence period was from June to December. The male to female ratio of reported cases was 5.78:1, and the number of reported cases in the age group of 20-39 years old accounted for 62.43% of the total number of cases. The reported cases were mainly housework and unemployed, farmers, and unknown occupation. The severity of the regional incidence was divided into 5 categories by the Q-type clustering, and the most serious category included Shennongjia Forest District, Huangshi City, and Wuhan City. The ARIMA model predicted the incidence rate to be in good agreement with the actual incidence rate, with a predicted number of 3 343 cases in 2022. Conclusion At present, gonorrhea in Hubei Province is still at a high prevalence level. There are obvious differences in gender, age, occupation, and regional distribution. The ARIMA model is suitable for predicting the incidence of gonorrhea, and it is predicted that the incidence will increase slightly in 2022.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-05-19
  • 最后修改日期:2022-05-19
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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-21
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