2016—2021年自贡地区急性上呼吸道感染与气象因素关联分析

Correlation between acute upper respiratory tract infection and meteorological factors in Zigong area in 2016-2021

摘要:

目的 探究2016—2021年自贡地区急性上呼吸道感染（AURI）与气象因素关联分析。方法 收集自贡市第一人民医院2016至2021年间急诊所有急性上呼吸道感染病例，及同期气象资料（包括但不限于气温、相对湿度、气压、日照时间、风速等）。从急诊电子资料中筛选病例，将符合标准的病案纳入本研究，分析其病例资料，研究急性上呼吸道感染与气象因素的关系。结果 本研究共纳入5608例患者，其中男性3893例（69.42%），女性1715例（30.58%），年龄平均（50.17±9.81）岁。诱发因素为气候突变2331例（41.57%），慢性呼吸道疾病史1458例（26.00%），老年或幼儿免疫功能低下1106例（19.72%），维生素缺乏512例（9.13%），其他201例（3.58%）。自贡地区急性上呼吸道传染一年四季均有发生，春季呼吸道传染病发病人数多于其他季节，发病人数最少季节为秋季。其中5月发病人数最多（650例），1月其次（592例）；9月发病最少（475例），8月其次（480例）。本地区上呼吸道感染逐日发病人数与日均气温、日照时长和日降水量呈负相关性（r日均气温=-0.635，P日均气温=0.027；r日照时长=-0.678，P日照时长=0.015；r日降水量=-0.691，P日降水量=0.013；）；与气温日较差、24hrs变压呈正相关（r气温日较差=0.644，P气温日较差=0.024；r24hrs变压=0.579，P24hrs变压=0.049）。AURI诱发并发症与日均气温呈负相关性（r日均气温=-0.718，P日均气温=0.009），与气温日较差呈正相关（r气温日较差=0.651，P气温日较差=0.022）。多要素回归积分法显示，检验效果一致性均超过70%，在同一级或相邻等级均超过85%。结论 2016—2021年自贡地区急性上呼吸道感染一年四季均有发生，其中春季发病人数最多，秋季最少；全年中5月发病人数最多，9月发病人数最少；且其发病人数受日均气温、日照时长、日降水量、气温日较差和24hrs变压影响；分季节建立呼吸道医疗气象预报模型对急性上呼吸道感染发病人数预报具有较强的预报能力。

Abstract:

Objective To explore the correlation between acute upper respiratory tract infection and meteorological factors in Zigong area from 2016 to 2021. Methods All acute upper respiratory tract infection cases from the Emergency Department of the First People's Hospital of Zigong City from 2016 to 2021 and meteorological data (including but not limited to temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, sunshine time, wind speed, etc.) during the same period were collected. Cases were screened from emergency electronic data, and medical records that met the criteria were included in this study to analyze the relationship between acute upper respiratory tract infection and meteorological factors. Results A total of 5 608 patients were enrolled in this study, including 3,893 males (69.42%) and 1,715 females (30.58%), with an average age of 50.17±9.81 years. The predisposing factors were climate change in 2331 cases (41.57%), history of chronic respiratory diseases in 1458 cases (26.00%), low immune function in the elderly or young children in 1106 cases (19.72%), vitamin deficiency in 512 cases (9.13%), and others in 201 cases (3.58%). Acute upper respiratory infections in Zigong area occurred all year round. Spring had more respiratory infections than other seasons, and the season with the fewest infections was autumn. Among them, May had the highest number of cases (650 cases), followed by January (592 cases). September had the least number of cases (475 cases), followed by August (480 cases). The daily incidence of upper respiratory tract infection in this area was negatively correlated with daily average temperature, sunshine duration and daily precipitation (r daily average temperature=-0.635, P daily average temperature=0.027; r sunshine duration=-0.678, P sunshine duration= 0.015; r day precipitation = -0.691, p day precipitation = 0.013), and positively correlated with the daily temperature range and 24 hrs pressure change (r temperature daily range=0.644, P temperature daily range=0.024; r24hrs change pressure=0.579, P24hrs change pressure=0.049). AURI-induced complications were negatively correlated with daily average temperature (r daily average temperature=-0.718, P daily average temperature=0.009), and positively correlated with daily temperature range (r temperature daily range = 0.651, P temperature daily range = 0.022). The analysis of multi-factor regression integration showed that the consistency of the test results exceeded 70%, and it exceeded 85% at the same level or adjacent levels. Conclusion From 2016 to 2021, acute upper respiratory tract infection occurs throughout the year in Zigong, with the most in spring and the least in autumn. May and September are the two months with the highest and lowest number of cases, respectively. The number of cases is affected by the average daily temperature, sunshine duration, daily precipitation, daily temperature range and 24hrs variable pressure. The establishment of a respiratory medical weather forecast model by season has a strong forecasting ability for the number of acute upper respiratory infections.